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Resilience of the Cuban Regime

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Yayımlanma Tarihi: 05.04.2026

Cuba is an island country located in the Caribbean, and has had a tense relationship with the United States since the 1959 Cuban Revolution led by Fidel Castro. Following the revolution, Cuba adopted a Marxist-Leninist system, aligning itself with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. Since then, the United States has imposed an ongoing economic embargo on Cuba.

Despite the decades-long embargo and political pressures, the survival of the Cuban government can be explained by a combination of external and internal factors.

Fidel Castro led a successful revolution and came to power with communism. This caused serious security concerns in the U.S. who was in a global rivalry with the Soviet Union. Therefore, the Soviet Union strengthened relations with Cuba and the country became a key strategic partner. Although the United States attempted to overthrow the Castro’s government, it failed. The relations reached a critical point during the Cuban Missile Crisis, when the world came to the brink of nuclear war. As a strategic ally, Cuba was supported economically and militarily by the Soviets. This assistance enabled the government to sustain itself and empowered the regime to deliver on its social obligations to society, such as free health care and education. Moreover, it prevented the U.S. from directly intervening in Cuba. After the dissolution of Soviet Union in 1991, Cuba required new economic partners and diversified its international partnerships. China, European Union, Venezuela become important trade partners.

Internal political control has played a central role in maintaining the regime. The Castro administration exercised extensive control over society through state institutions. As Gonzalez and McCarthy emphasize, the failures of internal policies were often compensated for by the state apparatus, while society was continually mobilized in support of the regime. Moreover, organized political opposition and demonstrations were suppressed by the state’s security forces. Political and economic pressure from the U.S. has often reinforced the regime by providing justification for economic difficulties and political control. The combination of tight internal control and the ability to use external pressure as a tool demonstrates how the Cuban regime has been able to survive challenges.

Efforts to improve relations between the two sides have been limited, although there were brief attempts to re-establish them during Obama’s presidency. He took the first steps in normalization of the relations and emphasized it “I have come here to bury the last remnants of the Cold War.” during his meeting with Raul Castro in Havana. In an effort to restore relations, certain measures were undertaken, including the exchange of prisoners. However, after Donald Trump succeeded Obama in 2017 and U.S. engagement ended. Trump administration implemented stricter policies on Cuba, including a ban on U.S. tourism to the island, alongside tighter economic restrictions.

Today, Cuba is facing a crisis due to the U.S. oil blockade and the intervention in Venezuela. Venezuela is especially important to the island because it supplies about two-thirds of its oil. Therefore, Cuba is one of the most affected countries by the intervention which has led to uncertainty regarding the island’s future and a possible intervention. For the Trump administration, the Western Hemisphere and the reassertion of the U.S. dominance constitute a key focus, with Cuba perceived as a threat due to its communist regime and its rejection of a free-market economy.

Cuban people are heavily affected by power outages in their homes and businesses. The electricity crisis is weakining the delivery of services such as education, transportation and public health care. After Trump stated that he had “no problem” with countries sending supplies to Cuba, a Russian tanker delivering oil to the island has arrived in Cuba. This delivery is the first to reach since January 2026. Additionally, China delivered emergency aid including $80 million in financial assistance. These developments indicate that Cuba is not isolated in the international system.

In conclusion, economic and social costs of the U.S. sanctions on Cuba have harmed the country’s economy, but it failed to achieve their primary objective of regime change. The survival of the Cuban regime is not the result of a single factor, but rather a combination of strategic alliances, domestic control and the unintended effects of U.S. foreign policy. The Cuban case illustrates the limitations of long-term sanctions as a tool for political transformation. Even if the face of significant crises, the regime has demonstrated an ability to adapt and continue.

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